So often, telling the story of the Israel-Hamas war is reduced to a catalog of numbers. But this war is much more than all of that.
It is the daily life of the people living in the midst of the war that has now been raging for 10 months. It has come to encompass a sense of insecurity that permeates, as the humanitarian crisis worsens in Gaza through famine, unclean water and dwindling resources. Pair that with the prospect of a wider regional conflict with Iran that looms nearby.
On Thursday, the U.S. and Arab mediators will be launching new talks to attempt to finally secure a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas. But with the recent assassination of Hamas leader and negotiator Ismail Haniyeh, as well as Hezbollah's Fuad Shukr, hopes for tensions to be diffused are not high.
And as for the numbers, this is what they tell us:
- At least 39,929 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since Oct. 7 and 92,240 Palestinians have been injured, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health.
- Those deaths come in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that killed 1,200 people at a musical festival in Israel.
- Around 250 hostages were taken by Hamas and other attackers. 115 of those hostages remain in Gaza, of whom 41 are believed to be dead.
- One Israeli citizen is still considered missing after Oct. 7, according to the Israeli government.
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Skepticism on a cease-fire
President Biden has said he's confident a cease-fire is near many times over the past several months, though each effort put forward has stalled. Could anything really be different this time around?
NPR international correspondent Daniel Estrin says there are a few things that could yield a different outcome, namely a new sense of urgency among the mediators.
"They say there is a ticking clock here, because they're hoping that a Gaza cease-fire can dissuade Iran from its threat to attack Israel. They want to prevent a wider regional war through this Gaza cease-fire. And it really is a dramatic moment. You have this military buildup with the U.S. sending warships and combat jets to the region to fend off a possible attack. And at the same time, you also have this very dramatic diplomatic push. We have a senior Israeli delegation on its way to Qatar. The CIA chief is expected to be there, too."
Estrin says that the basic framework of the cease-fire deal has been on the table for months, which outlines a hostage prisoner exchange. Palestinian civilians would return to North Gaza. But even with that deal, there are many unresolved issues.
"How many Israeli hostages would be released in the first stage of this deal? What about Palestinian detainees? Who would be released in exchange? Will Israel get to screen Palestinians returning to North Gaza and prevent armed militants from going there, too? What about Israeli soldiers? Will they withdraw from the Gaza Egypt border? And then the biggest question is, will this be the end of the war, the actual permanent end of the war?"
Hamas wants a guarantee of that. U.S. and Arab mediators say that's the intention. And at the same time, Israel wants to be able to return to combat if they think Hamas is dragging on these talks.
What the leaders want
In the end, Estrin says, "It comes down to whether the leader of Israel and the leader of Hamas want it." And there is room to question if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will ultimately agree to a cease-fire deal.
"He has said all along that he is not succumbing to pressure to end the war. He's standing up to his security chiefs. They're all telling him that now is the time to strike a deal with Hamas. They want to shift focus to Iran and to Hezbollah. And then you have the far right in Netanyahu's government. They actually want to prolong the campaign in Gaza against Hamas much longer."
That campaign is part of a religious, ultranationalist ideology, Estrin explains.
"They dream of Israeli dominion over Gaza permanently. There are even some who dream of sending Jewish settlers to Gaza now," he said.
And while Netanyahu does not claim to share those far right ideologies, many analysts in Israel say that delaying a cease-fire deal could benefit Netanyahu's own personal interests.
A deal with Hamas could lead to new elections, which could lead to Netanyahu losing power, or a national reckoning where he could be found responsible for the worst security failure in Israel's history.
"That's something he wants to avoid as long as possible," Estrin says.